In January of this year, David Anstiss, Cemal Dikmen, and I continued our annual tradition of providing an outlook on Global Lawful and Location Intelligence for 2024. Looking forward is always more engaging, sparking insightful conversations informed by the experiences and challenges of the customers we work with. As 2024 comes to a close and we prepare our outlook for 2025, it’s an opportune moment to revisit the insights from our 2024 outlook and reflect on the evolving dynamics of global intelligence.
The past year has been defined by unpredictability and rapid change, with geopolitical tensions, the transformative impact of artificial intelligence, and the looming threat of cyber “black swan” events dominating the landscape. These interconnected challenges have underscored the critical need for robust and adaptive intelligence solutions. As governments and organizations navigate this complex terrain, lawful intelligence emerges as a vital tool—not only in responding to threats but also in shaping a more secure and resilient future.
Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of Lawful Intelligence
As 2024 unfolded, the world remained embroiled in significant geopolitical shifts and instability. Ongoing military conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, coupled with refugee crises in Armenia and Syria, underscored the growing humanitarian and security challenges. In the three years leading up to our writing of this outlook, multiple coups swept across Africa, with Niger’s coup in July 2023 marking the seventh in a troubling trend. Meanwhile, in the United States and Europe, migration crises strained resources as persistent mass flows of asylum seekers arrived at borders. This instability presents a grave risk to national security, forcing host countries to strike a delicate balance between humanitarian compassion and securing their borders.
These crises create opportunities for exploitation by bad actors. Overwhelmed immigration systems provide fertile ground for human trafficking networks, which profit from the chaos. While public attention often focuses on large groups of migrants crossing borders, criminal organizations exploit less visible routes to traffic narcotics, weapons, and contraband. Many migrants, including minors, tragically fall victim to human trafficking, including sexual slavery.
Governments under pressure are increasingly turning to advanced technologies to strengthen their border control systems. Lawful Intelligence and Location Intelligence have become critical tools, enabling border agents to rapidly assess potential risks posed by individuals. However, the challenges of limited time and high-pressure environments demand continued innovation and implementation of these technologies.
Geopolitical tensions also dominated 2024, with flashpoints ranging from concerns over Chinese aggression in Southeast Asia to the far-reaching effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Political shifts across the globe added to the complexity, as over half the world’s population participated in elections that could reshape national and international alliances. NATO faced strains due to differing responses to Russia, while the Middle East witnessed the expansion of conflict fronts.
Additionally, external influences—through political funding and disinformation campaigns—exacerbated local tensions, turning them into global concerns. Two notable examples include the turmoil in Georgia and the Pacific island of New Caledonia, where foreign interference played a role in escalating unrest. Even major global events like the Paris Olympics were not immune, as disinformation campaigns proliferated through fake news outlets and social media accounts.
In Western nations, debates around immigration fueled societal divides and influenced elections. Lawful Intelligence played, and continues to play, a pivotal role in identifying and countering these external influences. By tracking bad actors and uncovering disinformation campaigns, governments are better equipped to safeguard their democratic processes and societal cohesion.
The interconnected nature of today’s geopolitical landscape underscores the critical need for robust intelligence solutions. As nations grapple with instability, migration crises, and external meddling, Lawful Intelligence offers a pathway to greater security and resilience. However, its effective deployment requires not only technological advancements but also a commitment to ethical practices and global cooperation.
The Transformative Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Lawful Intelligence
As 2024 unfolded, Artificial Intelligence (AI) remained a dominant topic in law enforcement and national security circles. However, the rapid pace at which AI has infiltrated every aspect of these fields has been nothing short of astonishing. The year saw not only a marked increase in the volume of crimes committed using AI but also a dramatic diversification in the types of crimes leveraging AI technologies.
From deepfake scams to sophisticated cyberattacks, AI has become a tool of choice for bad actors, amplifying the complexity and scale of criminal activity. The proliferation of consumer-grade AI tools has empowered non-experts to deploy powerful technologies for malicious purposes. The ease with which custom applications can be built atop existing AI services poses significant challenges for law enforcement. Many of these applications—and their underlying AI services—are designed without means for cooperating with investigations. Moreover, these tools can be hosted anywhere globally or even operated locally in private residences, adding layers of jurisdictional and treaty-related complications for investigators.
To counter these growing threats, law enforcement and intelligence agencies are increasingly adopting AI themselves. These technologies are being leveraged to:
- Identify Ethical Concerns: Ensuring that the use of AI remains aligned with privacy laws and ethical standards.
- Combat Adversaries: Staying ahead of criminals and adversaries who exploit AI for illegal activities.
- Streamline Workflows: Automating time-intensive tasks to allow investigators to focus on high-priority cases.
Despite these efforts, the rapidly evolving commercial and consumer AI landscape is outpacing regulatory and investigative frameworks. New capabilities and applications emerge weekly, making it challenging for agencies to keep pace.
The explosion of AI-generated and AI-related data has added to the workload of law enforcement and intelligence agencies. Data analytics has become more critical than ever in extracting actionable insights from vast, complex, and often unstructured data sets that humans cannot process efficiently.
SS8’s Intellego MetaHub plays a pivotal role in addressing this challenge. By unifying disparate and unstructured data into a cohesive framework, MetaHub enables agencies to effectively consume and act on information. This capability is essential for lawful intelligence operations, as it ensures that critical insights are not lost in the overwhelming sea of data.
As the consumer and commercial AI sectors continue to grow at breakneck speed, the challenges—and opportunities—faced by lawful intelligence will multiply. To remain effective, law enforcement and intelligence agencies must not only adopt cutting-edge AI tools but also advocate for international cooperation and updated treaties that address jurisdictional challenges posed by globally distributed AI applications.
The Threat of a Cyber “Black Swan” Event in 2024
One of the most pressing concerns for 2024 was the potential for an unpredictable event with widespread, catastrophic consequences—a so-called “black swan” event. While scenarios such as solar storms, political assassinations, military conflicts in Southeast Asia, and even the use of nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are often highlighted, our focus has been on the looming threat of cyber “black swan” events targeting Critical National Iinfrastructure (CNI).
NSM-22 defines Critical National Infrastructure as the physical and virtual assets and systems so vital to the Nation that their incapacity or destruction would have a debilitating impact on national security, national economic security, or national public health or safety. In the United States, for example, 16 sectors have been officially identified as critical, ranging from energy and transportation to communications and healthcare. A cyber black swan event targeting one or more of these sectors could have devastating ripple effects.
Lawful Intelligence plays a pivotal role in mitigating the risks associated with cyber black swan events. By identifying potential threats, investigating malicious actions, and enabling the prosecution of offenders, lawful intelligence serves as a cornerstone of national and economic security. Some key vulnerabilities include:
- Ports and Logistics. Ports remain prime targets for adversaries due to their critical role in global trade. Disruptions in the transport of goods can quickly cascade into widespread economic and societal impacts, affecting everything from dinner table staples to consumer prices. Recent attacks on maritime infrastructure highlight the importance of proactive surveillance and intelligence.
- Power Grid and Energy Security. With the explosive growth of AI, the demand for power is poised to increase exponentially. Researchers estimate a tenfold increase in power consumption over the coming years, driven by AI’s computational needs. Beyond expanding the power grid, securing it against cyber threats becomes increasingly critical. A successful attack on energy infrastructure could cripple economies and threaten lives, particularly in nations highly reliant on continuous power availability.
- Communications Infrastructure. Modern society’s reliance on communications infrastructure cannot be overstated. Whether in times of disaster or day-to-day operations, the ability to connect, share information, and stay informed is vital. Cyberattacks targeting communications systems during a crisis could amplify chaos, delay emergency responses, and exacerbate human suffering.
Exiting 2024 without experiencing a cyber black swan event does not equate to reduced risk. Reports of nation-state hackers breaching critical infrastructure systems demonstrate how easily adversaries can transition from data exfiltration to outright destruction. This evolving threat landscape underscores the urgent need for robust lawful intelligence capabilities to detect, deter, and respond to such threats before they escalate.
As we look ahead to 2025, the threat of a cyber black swan event looms large. Lawful Intelligence will continue to play a crucial role in safeguarding critical national infrastructure, ensuring that societies remain resilient in the face of unpredictable and potentially catastrophic cyber events. Proactive measures, international cooperation, and advanced intelligence tools will be essential in maintaining security and mitigating risks in an increasingly interconnected world.
Conclusion
The challenges of 2024 highlight the evolving role of lawful intelligence in addressing multifaceted risks shaping our world. Whether countering geopolitical instability, harnessing the transformative power of AI, or preparing for potential cyber black swan events, intelligence solutions must remain at the forefront of global efforts. However, the efficacy of lawful intelligence depends on continuous innovation, ethical implementation, and international collaboration. As we look to 2025 and beyond, the ability to adapt to these challenges will define not only the success of intelligence frameworks but also the resilience of societies worldwide.
Stay tuned for our Global Lawful and Location Intelligence Outlook: 2025 coming out in January.
About David Anstiss
David Anstiss is Director of Solution Engineering at SS8 Networks. He has been with SS8 since 2015 and has significant experience in critical network architecture technology and advanced data analytics. He currently works as part of the Technical CTO Group under the leadership of Dr. Cemal Dikmen and is responsible for leading engagement with both intelligence agencies and Communication Service Providers (CSPs) around the world. He has been instrumental in helping them transition to 5G, defining system requirements to meet regulatory compliance. As a member of ETSI, he represents SS8 to ensure the adoption of cloud-native infrastructure is met with industry best practices and to guarantee that compliance of lawful interception is maintained. Learn more about David here on his LinkedIn profile.
About Dr. Cemal Dikmen
As SS8’s CTO, Cemal plays an integral role in the company’s strategic direction, development, and future growth. A renowned expert and thought leader in the legal compliance and communications analysis domain, he has been a frequent speaker at various industry conferences over the past 10 years. Cemal holds BS, MS, and PhD degrees in Electrical Engineering. You can learn more about Cemal on his LinkedIn profile by clicking here.
About Kevin McTiernan
Kevin McTiernan is a seasoned professional with over 20 years of experience in the security industry. His extensive expertise spans big data, cybersecurity, network security analysis, and regulatory compliance. As Vice President of Government Solutions at SS8, Kevin specializes in the implementation of advanced intelligence solutions for the U.S. Government, law enforcement, and the Five Eyes alliance. He is an accomplished public speaker and an adamant supporter and volunteer for the National Child Protection Task Force. You can learn more about Kevin on his LinkedIn profile.
About SS8 Networks
As a leader in Lawful and Location Intelligence, SS8 helps make societies safer. Our commitment is to extract, analyze, and visualize the critical intelligence that gives law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and emergency services the real-time insights that help save lives. Our high performance, flexible, and future-proof solutions also enable mobile network operators to achieve regulatory compliance with minimum disruption, time, and cost. SS8 is trusted by the largest government agencies, communications providers, and systems integrators globally.
Intellego® XT monitoring and data analytics portfolio is optimized for Law Enforcement Agencies to capture, analyze, and visualize complex data sets for real-time investigative intelligence.
LocationWise delivers the highest audited network location accuracy worldwide, providing active and passive location intelligence for emergency services, law enforcement, and mobile network operators.
Xcipio® mediation platform meets the demands of lawful intercept in any network type and provides the ability to transcode (convert) between lawful intercept handover versions and standard families.
To learn more, contact us at info@ss8.com.
